In a bleak start to the week, an MKM Partners analyst examined earnings transcripts dating back to 2017 for six LPs and discovered 29% of the six LPs’ 947 predictions, promises, and outlooks were correct, 28% were incorrect, and 43% were unresolved. Thus, those companies’ guidance has only been correct 51% of the time.
Twitter—Max Cherney, Bloomberg
- Negative productions were 93% likely to be correct, while positive ones were only correct 48% of the time.
Cannalyst Craig “GoBlueCDN” Wiggins told an audience at Lift & Co last week that LPs are holding 721 days’ worth of inventory, which could become 816 days’ worth of excess stock (at the end of its lifespan and unsellable) within a year. At the same time, Wiggins said LPs are harvesting roughly 4.42 kg for every kilogram sold.
- “More retails stores and ‘2.0’ does not fix this,” Wiggins said. “Something has to give. We need companies to go out of business. […] We need people to write off inventory.”
- Wiggins later added, “The next six months in the cannabis industry will be like the opening scene to Saving Private Ryan. A successful few will make it off the beach.”
- Geneticist Ryan Lee wondered whether there will be another Lift & Co Vancouver, saying “Attendance seems way down, rumors of a bad financial situation, [and] tweets suggesting a change of direction of the business after going public.”
It’s cheaper to run a vertically integrated cannabis company in the US than in Canada, and they’re more profitable.
MJ Biz Daily Investor Intelligence
At least the stocks aren’t circling the drain anymore, with the Canadian Marijuana Index up nearly 20% and others on the rise. Whether this is a turnaround is uncertain.